After three days of decline, the market finally printed a small bullish candle, closing at 671.97 points, up 1.43 points or 0.2133%. Turnover increased 16.24% to 11,281,170.95, while new valuation dropped 9.81% to 1,990,198.28. The index remains below the near-term moving average of 672.35. AK-47 models dominated the leaderboard, with Redline, Asiimov, and Inheritance climbing to the top three, while knives and collectibles fell.
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After three days of relentless decline, the market finally mustered a small bullish candle. 671.97 points, up 1.43 points, or 0.2133%—call it a rally? Not quite. Call it flat? At least it's green. In jargon, this is a "tentative rebound after a volume-shrinking halt." In plain terms, it's "the fall got tired, so it's catching its breath."
1. Market: A Bullish Candle, But the Moving Average Still Presses Down
First, the index. At 671.97 points, the near-term moving average sample mean is 672.35, so the latest point is 0.38 points below the MA. Don't underestimate that 0.38—it's exactly the breath that failed to push above, indicating that overhead resistance remains. The bulls only pulled their feet out of the water today, not yet on shore. The three-day losing streak (DOWN 3 days) ended today, but barely—a textbook case of "stopping the fall is not a reversal."
Volume was lively. Today's turnover was 11,281,170.95, up 16.24% from the previous day; volume was 451,943, up 4%. Volume grew faster than price, a classic sign of "intensified rotation"—some are cutting losses, some are taking over, and both sides shake hands around 671, each thinking the other is a fool. But note: yesterday's turnover was 27,279,942.24, so today's absolute value is only a little over 40% of yesterday's, meaning market heat hasn't fully returned. The quality of this bullish candle deserves a discount.
New valuation: 1,990,198.28, down 9.81% from the previous day. This number is dropping fast, meaning the valuation increment from new incoming funds is shrinking. Translation: there are still buyers, but they are getting more cautious. Total supply: 1,147,370,793; holders: 29,883,167. The pie is the same, the people are the same, the chips haven't decreased—just more hands are shaking.
Online activity: current online 436,313, flat versus yesterday same time (0.0000%), up 2.31% versus last week same time. Popularity hasn't retreated, but hasn't advanced either—spectators fill the stands, but the same few are paying.
2. Leaderboard Changes: AK Trio Dominates, Knives Retreat en Masse
Today's leaderboard drama was more exciting than the index—a "great reshuffle day."
New entrants and risers: AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) jumped from 4th to 1st, change 0.0000%—what's that called? A promotion without a pay raise. AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) was even more aggressive, leaping from 11th to 2nd, also 0.0000%, climbing nine steps without gasping. AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested) surged from 14th to 3rd, also flat at 0.0000%, but up eleven places—price didn't move, popularity did. AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) moved from 5th to 4th, a slow jog. M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) rose from 13th to 7th, up six places on flat trading, indicating thicker bid support.
Fallers: AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) dropped from 1st to 5th, relinquishing the throne, change 0.0000%. M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) slid from 2nd to 6th, also 0.0000%. USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) fell from 6th to 8th. Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) from 7th to 9th. ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) from 8th to 10th. ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) from 9th to 11th. AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) from 10th to 12th. This collective retreat of knives and collectibles shows a shift in capital preference from "big-ticket show-off" to "rifle hard currency," with clear risk aversion.
Tragic drop-outs: Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) plummeted from 3rd to 14th, change -0.2450%, the worst performer on the decline list. AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) fell from 12th to 13th, down 0.1541%. These two were the only negative performers today; though losses were small, the ranking drops were severe—minor price damage, major popularity damage.
3. Technical Commentary: Volume-Price Divergence Under MA Pressure, Don't Rush to Call a Bull Return
Technically, today's bullish candle offers several intriguing signals.
First, the index at 671.97 remains below the near-term MA of 672.35—a "rebound below the MA," not a golden cross but more like a technical repair within a downtrend. To confirm a reversal, watch if tomorrow can close above the MA with volume; otherwise, it's a one-day wonder.
Second, the volume-price relationship is awkward. Turnover up 16.24%, but new valuation down 9.81%—a classic "volume without quality." Active trading comes from existing chips changing hands, not new funds entering. In stock market slang, "turnover rate is up, incremental funds are not here," and bag-holders are passing the baton, waiting to see who takes the last leg.
Third, leaderboard structure reveals capital taste. The top eight gainers are all 0.0000%, meaning prices didn't move but rankings shifted dramatically—purely a change in trading heat ordering. The AK trio occupies the top three, with Redline, Asiimov, and Inheritance rising together—a typical "defensive clustering," with funds hiding in the most liquid and recognizable models. Meanwhile, knives and印花 guns (printed skins) retreat collectively, indicating high-risk appetite money is withdrawing.
Fourth, from an overbought/oversold perspective, after three days of decline and a slight rise today, RSI-type indicators are probably just crawling back from cold territory, far from overbought. But considering MA pressure and volume-price divergence, it's too early to shout "bull is back." Support at the 670 integer mark, resistance at the 672.35 MA—whoever breaks first decides.
Final reminder: today's biggest gainers all have 0.0000% change—price didn't move, ranking did. Chasing such "ranking gains" is not the same as chasing highs, but if you go shopping because of ranking rises, you're essentially the same creature as the bag-holder chasing a limit-up board. Markets have risks; chase highs cautiously; below the MA, cash is king.
Data source: SteamDT.
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