794 Hugs 795 MA, Closes Red: Neo-Noir Crowns the Board as Volume Shrinks 10%

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September 28, 2026 at 18:52:51

SteamDT’s CS2 skin index printed 794.11 on Monday, slipping 2.30 points (-0.2888%) for a one-day DOWN streak while turnover and volume both cooled; Neo-Noir vaulted from #14 to #1 (+4.3089%) in a full leaderboard reshuffle.

Lead — Monday open (SteamDT snapshot 2026-09-28)
The CS2 skin “index” closed the tape at 794.11, off 2.30 points / -0.2888% from yesterday, tagged DOWN 1 day. This is not a crash headline—it’s the kind of kiss-the-moving-average-and-fail session technicians love to meme. Price 794.11 sits 1.48 points below the sample mean, parked under the 795.59 near-term MA. Translation for the chart-brained: close below the line, no golden-cross VIP pass for bulls yet. If your C5GAME cart is loaded like a launch pad, remember: without volume confirmation, even the loudest narrative is often just an emotion order.

Macro tape

Index vs MA: 794.11 remains below 795.59—classic MA as resistance, close as support test. Support isn’t broken; resistance isn’t cleared. The candle speaks shrink-volume drift lower, not panic-volume breakdown.

Price & volume: Turnover 24740470.74, -1.7300% WoD (prior 33889448.30). Volume 941706, -10.0000% (prior 1370390). Price down, volume down—veterans call that “sell pressure without hysteria,” but a -10% volume haircut also screams limit orders over market sweeps. New valuation 5328724.12, -55.8600%—that curve nosedived like a fresh “theme IPO” nobody wants; bag-holder admission tickets got scarce today.

Ecosystem: Float 1128031618, holders 29691401—the base is still obese. 724633 online now, -22.8200% vs yesterday same clock (+4.1300% vs last week same clock). Online heat acts like a volume leading indicator: same-day chill aligns with -10% prints—not a glitch, a one-notch downgrade in market pulse.

Leaderboard shuffle (SteamDT: no losers board today)

Everyone’s green, yet the rank game is brutal—slow green is still relative red.

Rank climbers (low-base surge story)

  • AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested): #14 → #1, +4.3089%—one-day V from the depths to crown; old “sector leaders” are in the rearview.
  • Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested): #13 → #3, +1.2368%—Deagle beta picked the elastic sibling.
  • ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New): #7 → #6, +0.3156%—high-ticket “index name” inches up; blue-chip vibes in a soft tape.

Rank slip (up but losing the race)

  • M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested): #1 → #2, still +1.3568%—not a dump, just out-sprinted; yesterday’s #1 holders are green in the mental ledger but alpha got hijacked by Neo-Noir.
  • AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): #2 → #4, +1.2311%; M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested): #4 → #5, +0.5052%; AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested): #5 → #7, +0.0561%—the AK/M4 “moving-average clan” retreats together, from +1% tier to +0.05% tier: rotation from old chart patterns to new faces.
  • AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested): #6 → #9, 0.0000%; USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested): #3 → #10, 0.0000%; Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New): #9 → #11, 0.0000%; ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New): #10 → #12, 0.0000%; AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested): #11 → #13; AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested): #12 → #14—flat price, rank bleeding: classic “sideways distribution” optics on Steam and C5GAME watchlists.

Unmoved

  • AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested): #8 → #8, 0.0000%—the peg; volatility hibernating.

Top-ten stress test
Kill Confirmed, Glock Fade, Butterfly Fade slid from #3–#12 band toward #10–#14. With no decliners list on SteamDT, “falling behind” means zero velocity—relative weakness, not absolute meltdown.

Technician notes

  1. MA war: 794.11 < 795.59—still under-line chop; reclaim 795.59 before calling trend reversal. Don’t spin -0.2888% into “bull market Day One.”
  2. Volume harmony: Price -0.2888%, volume -10%, turnover -1.73%—aligned weakness, no price-down / volume-up panic. Holding Redline +0.0561%? Fine, but index down / you micro-up can be the calm before catch-down.
  3. Leadership handoff: Neo-Noir +4.3089% vs Temukau +1.3568%—wide spread, high-low switch inside the sector. Chasing Neo-Noir flat-footed is chasing a vertical bar; verify wear tiers between Steam and C5GAME yourself—this desk only reads SteamDT ranks, not guaranteed PnL.
  4. Online vs prints: Online -22.82% syncs with volume -10%; vs last week still +4.13%—short-cycle cooldown, not weekly sentiment collapse. Better playbook: wait for volume-backed bullish engulfing or a 795.59 reclaim before sizing up—not levered YOLO.

Source: SteamDT (https://www.steamdt.com). Session ID 20260928.