SteamDT index 804.71 (+0.17%) after three down days—price nudges above the 803.94 MA while turnover and online players slip. Kill Confirmed tops a reshuffled gainers list; shop take: watch, don’t chase.
What happened today
SteamDT’s CS2 skin index printed 804.71 on 2026-09-20—+1.35 points (+0.1680%). After three straight down days, that small green bar is a relief bounce, not a trend flip.
Turnover landed at 4,359,772.43 CNY, -4.9500% day over day. Concurrent players 1,063,039, -4.8600% vs yesterday same time. Classic price up, participation down—labels move, wallets hesitate.
Index vs moving average
Near-term MA sample mean: 803.94. Close sits ~0.77 above—technicals read it as hugging support and rehearsing a golden cross (not confirmed yet). Streak flag: DOWN 3 days; today is post-three-red rebound, not a reversal certificate.
Volume & supply (why FOMO feels wrong)
| Metric | Today | Note |
|--------|-------|------|
| Trade count | 142,139 | +3.0000% vs prior |
| Turnover (CNY) | 4,359,772.43 | -4.9500% (prior 36,812,703.75) |
| New valuation | 853,680.89 | -10.7100% |
| Float (supply) | 1,123,797,787 | Still massive |
| Holders | 29,648,728 | Deep holder base |
| Online | 1,063,039 | -0.5300% vs last week same time |
More tickets, less money—low-price churn, big tickets missing. Online vs last week is only slightly off; sidelines, not mass exit. Real pressure: can turnover come back?
Gainers board: full table reset
Almost all new names—old faces swapped out. Treat ranks as a market snapshot, not one-sided euphoria.
- USP-S | Kill Confirmed (FT) +3.0930% — day-one leader, meme-gun headline act.
- AWP | Asiimov (FT) +1.2507% — classic AWP follow-through from off-board.
- M4A4 | Temukau (FT) +1.0469%
- Desert Eagle | Printstream (FT) +0.5329%
5–7. AK-47 Vulcan / Asiimov / Inheritance (FT) +0.4348% / +0.3821% / +0.2232% — AK cluster rotation.
- ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (FN) +0.0310% — knife lane barely green.
9–10. Glock-18 | Fade (FN), AWP | Containment Breach (FT) 0.0000% — placeholder entries, not strength.
Tail of the same refresh (soft red): AK-47 Redline (FT) -0.0056%, AWP | Neo-Noir (FT) -0.1207%, M4A1-S | Printstream (FT) -0.5488%, ★ Karambit | Doppler (FN) -0.5800%.
Hidden sectors: “Online heat” down -4.86% vs yesterday; “turnover heat” down -4.95%—mood ticked up, cash did not.
Shop guide: inspect, wear, worth it?
Kill Confirmed (FT) — If you’re hunting the day’s +3.09% leader: check float band and sticker tax on C5/Steam before you pay “leader premium.” Thin turnover day + hero name = easy to overpay for average wear. Worth buying only at your pre-set cap; skip if the listing screams chase.
AWP Asiimov (FT) — Liquidity classic; +1.25% on a low-participation day is follow-the-leader, not fresh narrative. Better as watchlist fill than impulse cart.
AK block (Vulcan / Asiimov / Inheritance FT) — Sector rotation, not uniform blast. Pick one role (play skin vs float trade), don’t basket-buy because four names landed together.
Butterfly Fade (FN) — +0.03% is cosmetic green. High ticket; today’s board doesn’t grant a volume-backed knife bid.
Zero movers (Glock Fade FN, Containment Breach FT) — Board furniture. Do not read 0.00% as hidden strength.
导购结论
Index 804.71 clears 803.94 by a hair, but turnover -4.95% and online -4.86% veto the “breakout buy.” Kill Confirmed is the story skin, not permission to lever the whole bag. Default play: limit bids, low float discipline, no hero entries until turnover stabilizes. Seven of top ten up, three flat/down—stock-picker day, not index chase day.
专家碎碎念
Three red days then a +0.17% sunbeam—RSI crowd calls it weak-zone technical bounce. I’d add: 1.12B float doesn’t negotiate. Tomorrow’s trinity: hold 803.94, turnover stop bleeding, Kill Confirmed without solo hype. Miss one leg and you’re still inside DOWN 3—a one-day阳线 tourist trap. Steady profit? The supply stack is smiling across the table.